Wednesday, February 17, 2016

The Data says it all

Financial indicators such as yield spreads between investment grade bonds and junk bonds, equity values, inflation rates, Treasury yields and commodity prices suggest a weak economy and a moderately high recession probability.
Yet car and home sales, employment growth, job quits, loan delinquencies, income growth, and now consumer spending suggest continued unspectacular growth and a low likelihood of recession.
I put the chances of recession at a relatively low 35%, but it's just a guess.
Happy Hump Day
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